A Phase II Study of CPC-201 to Treat Alzheimer's Disease Type Dementia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingalzheimermultipletolerabilitypatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatetypetrialinterferehistory or
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 79 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Allocation: not applicable (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Titration Study of CPC-201 in Patients With Dementia of Alzheimer's Type NCT02549196 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Long Term Extension Safety Study in Patients With Dementia of the Alzheimer's Type Who Completed Study CPC-001-07 NCT02434666 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• A Study of CAD106 and CNP520 Versus Placebo in Participants at Risk for the Onset of Clinical Symptoms of Alzheimer's Disease NCT02565511 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability of PQ912 in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02389413 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Study of IGC-AD1 in Subjects With Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease NCT04749563 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.