Study to Compare Alisertib With Paclitaxel vs. Paclitaxel Alone in Metastatic or Locally Recurrent Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticsubjectbrainmetastasesbreast cancer
  Phrases that lowered it: drugshealthclinicaltopicalscreening
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Alisertib and Fulvestrant in Treating Patients With Hormone Receptor Positive Breast Cancer That is Metastatic or Locally Advanced and Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT02219789 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Alisertib With or Without Fulvestrant in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic, Endocrine-Resistant Breast Cancer NCT02860000 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Alisertib and Pembrolizumab for the Treatment of Patients With Rb-deficient Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer NCT04555837 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Alisertib (MLN8237) in Combination With Weekly Paclitaxel in East Asian Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02367352 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I Study of Alisertib + R-EPOCH for Treatment of Myc-Positive Aggressive B-cell Lymphomas NCT02700022 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.