Dose Escalation Trial of Endoluminal High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy With Concurrent Chemotherapy for Rectal or Anal Cancer in Patients With Recurrent Disease or Undergoing Non-Operative Management

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: concurrentrecurrentulnsubjectscreatinine
  Phrases that lowered it: patients within patientspatients whomgoncology
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 383 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 48995 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemoradiation or Brachytherapy for Rectal Cancer NCT02017704 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Pelvic Radiotherapy With Concurrent Neoadjuvant FOLFOX for Patients With Newly Diagnosed Rectal Adenocarcinoma NCT02319304 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• HDR Brachytherapy, EBRT and STAD for the Treatment of Prostate Cancer NCT03553602 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Dose Optimization in 3D Pulsed Dose Rate Brachytherapy for Patients With Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer NCT02880007 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Computed Tomography-guided Brachytherapy Plus Chemotherapy for Locally Recurrent Rectum Cancer NCT02423226 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.