Antiplatelet Strategy for Peripheral Arterial Interventions for Revascularization of Lower Extremities

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapystage000concurrentdisease
  Phrases that lowered it: kneeindexto evaluatebloodaspirin
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot Study to Examine the Use of Rivaroxaban After Angioplasty for Critical Limb Ischemia NCT02260622 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Safety/Feasibility of Vonapanitase Following Angioplasty for Patients With Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) Below the Knee (BTK) NCT02956993 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Temsirolimus Alone or Paired With Dexamethasone Delivered to the Adventitia to eNhance Clinical Efficacy After Femoropopliteal Revascularization NCT03942601 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• Walking Effect of Long Term Ticagrelor in Subjects With PAD Who Have Undergone EVR NCT02227368 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• Edoxaban in Peripheral Arterial Disease NCT01802775 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.