A Study to Assess the Effects of Single Ascending Doses (SAD) of ASP8477, the Effect That Food Has on the Drug, and the Interaction Between ASP8477 and Omeprazole in Healthy Postmenopausal Females and Healthy Young Vasectomized Males

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboiiadmissionuse ofiv
  Phrases that lowered it: healthysubjectsinteractionsubjectsingle
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11446 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 42722 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 77.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Effects in and on the Body of Healthy Young and Elderly Male and Female Subjects of Ascending Multiple Oral Doses of ASP3652 NCT02243657 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Multiple Oral Administration of ASP7991 to Non-elderly Male Subjects NCT01872013 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Pharmacological Effect and Plasma Concentration of ASP7991 After Single Oral Administration to Healthy Volunteers NCT01675518 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of ASP8062 in Healthy Japanese Male and Female Subjects NCT03183739 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety of Multiple Dose of ASP0456 in Healthy Subjects NCT01427387 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.