Transplantation of Partially Mismatched Related or Matched Unrelated Bone Marrow for Patients With Refractory Severe Aplastic Anemia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 31% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-31, after 2014-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: marrowpatientsdonorrefractorybone
Phrases that lowered it: pulmonaryfev1acquiredfvc20 -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 35.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 73 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 146 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 35.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 57 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 71618 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11221 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cyclophosphamide, fludarabine, mesna, mycophenolic acid, tacrolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- NMA Haplo or MUD BMT for Newly Diagnosed Severe Aplastic Anemia NCT02833805 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Optimizing Haploidentical Aplastic Anemia Transplantation (BMT CTN 1502) NCT02918292 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- Stem Cell Transplant Using Peripheral and Cord Blood Stem Cells to Treat Severe Aplastic Anemia and Myelodysplastic Syndrome NCT00604201 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Horse ATG/CsA in Aplastic Anemia Patients Unresponsive to or With a Suboptimal Response to Rabbit ATG/CsA Treatment NCT00944749 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Nonmyeloablative Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation (HCT) for Patients With Hematologic Malignancies Using Related, HLA-Haploidentical Donors: A Pilot Trial of Peripheral Blood Stem Cells (PBSC) as the Donor Source NCT02167958 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.