A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of Once-daily Oral Avatrombopag in Japanese Subjects With Chronic Liver Diseases and Thrombocytopenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectscreeningplacebobaselinedouble
  Phrases that lowered it: japanesegroupthe efficacydrug20
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Patients With Chronic Liver Disease Undergoing an Elective Procedure NCT01976104 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Patients With Chronic Liver DiseaseUndergoing an Elective Procedure NCT01972529 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Open-label, Three-period, Partial-replicate Design Study to Evaluate the Inter- and Intrasubject Variability of the Avatrombopag To-be-marketed Formulation Administered as Single Doses of 40 mg to Healthy Subjects Receiving a Low-fat Meal NCT01759394 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Once-Daily Oral Avatrombopag Tablets Used in Subjects With Chronic Liver Diseases and Thrombocytopenia Prior to Elective Surgical or Diagnostic Procedures NCT00914927 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study of the Co-administration of VLX-1005 and Argatroban in Healthy Human Subjects NCT05325346 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.