Ceritinib and Combination Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors or Locally Advanced or Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsbrainstableprioreffective
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whopatients withaminotransferaseclinically significantinvestigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 52360 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8261 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ceritinib + Trametinib in Patients With Advanced ALK-Positive Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT03087448 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
• Study of Oral Ceritinib in Patients With ALK and ROS1 Activated Gastrointestinal Malignancies NCT02638909 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• Ceritinib in Combination With Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Metastatic Lung Adenocarcinoma NCT02513667 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
• Cabozantinib-S-Malate and Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01866410 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Study of Lorlatinib in ALK Inhibitor-Treated ALK-Positive NSCLC in China NCT03909971 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.