Phase III Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Added Exenatide Versus Placebo to Titrated Basal Insulin Glargine in Inadequately Controlled Patients With Type II Diabetes Mellitus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stablethe safetypatientsplacebo controlledprior
  Phrases that lowered it: metformindaytype diabeteshepatitisefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 24.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 148 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1268 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Exenatide Once-Weekly Injection Compared to Once-Daily Insulin in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT00935532 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 28-Week Study With 24-Week and 52-week Extension Phases to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Exenatide Once Weekly and Dapagliflozin Versus Exenatide and Dapagliflozin Matching Placebo NCT02229396 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Exenatide Once Weekly Suspension in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01652716 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Glycemic Effects, Safety, and Tolerability of Exenatide Once Weekly in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (DURATION-5) NCT00877890 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Once-Weekly Exenatide Versus Once or Twice Daily Insulin Detemir in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01003184 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.