GSK1278863 Effects on Eccentric Exercise-Induced Muscle Damage
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-06-12, after 2015-01-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 2043 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 297 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placeboheartpainfailuresubjects with
Phrases that lowered it: healthyscreeningarthritisrheumatoidvolunteers -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 35 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2043 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 297 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Repeat Dose Food Effect Study of GSK256073F in Healthy Adult Subjects NCT00808093 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of GSK1362885 in Healthy Normal Subjects NCT00823940 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Single Dose Escalation Study of GSK2838232 in Healthy Subjects NCT01802918 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic (PK), and Pharmacodynamic Study of GSK2881078 and Study to Evaluate the Effect of CYP3A4 Inhibition on PK of GSK2881078 NCT02567773 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Single and Repeat IV Doses NCT01615796 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.