A Trial of Intranasal Ketamine for the Treatment of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-01-31, after 2014-09-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: brainplacebosignificantdisorderuncontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanttrialdrugcompare -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 36 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1766 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 362 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ketamine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Randomized Controlled Trial of Intranasal Ketamine vs. Intranasal Midazolam in Individuals With OCD NCT02206776 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
- Intravenous Ketamine in the Treatment of Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder NCT01371110 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials terminated
- Pilot Study of Ketamine in Adults With Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) NCT01100255 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Ketamine Treatment for Pediatric-Refractory Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) NCT02422290 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Pilot Study of Minocycline (NPL-2003) in Adults With Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) NCT00728923 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.