Selonsertib in Adults With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebo controlledpulmonaryscreeningmay applycriteria may
  Phrases that lowered it: effector equalequal toparticipantsweeks
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 96 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Selexipag (ACT-293987) in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT01106014 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• A Study of Sotatercept for the Treatment of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT03738150 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study to Find Out if Selexipag is Effective and Safe in Patients With Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension When the Disease is Inoperable or Persistent/Recurrent After Surgery and/or Interventional Treatment NCT03689244 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Frespaciguat (MK-5475) in Participants With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (INSIGNIA-PAH: Phase 2/3 Study of an Inhaled sGC Stimulator in PAH) (MK-5475-007) NCT04732221 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Imatinib (QTI571) in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension NCT00902174 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.