Ibudilast (MN-166) in Subjects With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-12-31, after 2014-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellsubject hasgreatercancersquamous
Phrases that lowered it: drugdaymgtrialalcohol -
Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 6 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 175 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 36 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ibudilast, riluzole
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase 2 Study for SAR443820 in Participants With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) NCT05237284 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
- A Biomarker Study to Evaluate MN-166 in Subjects With Amyotrophic Literal Sclerosis (ALS) NCT02714036 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Treatment Combining Riluzole and IFB-088 in Bulbar Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (TRIALS Protocol) NCT05508074 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Effects of Oral Levosimendan (ODM-109) on Respiratory Function in Patients With ALS NCT03505021 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Phase1 First in Human Ascending Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of FC-12738 in Health Adults NCT05978908 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.