Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Biological Activity of ATYR1940 in Adult Participants With Muscular Dystrophy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: statindefinedevidencetime oftolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsreceivedweeks beforedays before
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Safety, Tolerability, and Changes in Biomarker and Clinical Outcome Assessments of Losmapimod for FSHD1 With Extension NCT04004000 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate Safety and Biological Activity of ATYR1940 in Participants With Limb Girdle Muscular Dystrophy 2B (LGMD2B) and Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) NCT02579239 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK), and Activity of ATYR1940 in Participants With Muscular Dystrophy - Study Extension NCT02531217 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• S 48168 (ARM 210) for the Treatment of RYR1-related Myopathies (RYR1-RM) NCT04141670 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Safety, Tolerability, and Biological Activity of ATYR1940 in Participants With Limb Girdle and Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) NCT02836418 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.