Phase II Study of Chemo-Radiotherapy in Patients With Resectable and Borderline Resectable Pancreatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 44% for any early termination, 26% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-01-14, after 2014-02-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-01-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: pancreaticcancerchemotherapyradiationpatients must
Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialthis clinicalallergicsafetychronic -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 36 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 36 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 9705 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1427 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- fluoropyrimidine, gemcitabine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Neoadjuvant FOLFIRINOX and FDR-Gemcitabine With Concurrent IMRT in Patients NCT01661088 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Adjuvant Versus Neoadjuvant Plus Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Resectable Pancreatic Cancer NCT01314027 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
- Randomized Multicenter Phase II/III Study With Adjuvant Gemcitabine Versus Neoadjuvant / Adjuvant FOLFIRINOX for Resectable Pancreas Carcinoma NCT02172976 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study of Hypofractionated Radio-chemotherapy With Gemcitabine Plus Oxaliplatin for Unresectable Nonmetastatic Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer. NCT02035072 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- NEOadjuvant Gemcitabine/Oxaliplatin Plus Adjuvant Gemcitabine in Resectable PAncreatic Cancer NCT01521702 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.