A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate the Impact of MTP-131 (Bendavia™) on Skeletal Muscle Function in Elderly

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-07-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mssubjectmmplacebo controlledhg
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatebodyjudgedscreeningblood
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Tolerability, Efficacy of MTP-131 for Treatment of Mitochondrial Disease in Subjects From the MMPOWER Study NCT02805790 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Oral SRT2104 Capsules Administered to Healthy Elderly Subjects for 28 Days NCT00964340 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Elamipretide in Subjects With Primary Mitochondrial Disease From Nuclear DNA Mutations (nPMD) NCT05162768 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Safety, Tolerability, and Changes in Biomarker and Clinical Outcome Assessments of Losmapimod for FSHD1 With Extension NCT04004000 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• A Multi-center Study to Assess the Effects of BYM338 on Skeletal Muscle in Sarcopenic Adults NCT01601600 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.