Curcumin Associated With Thiopurin in the Prevention of Post-op Recurrence in Crohn Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (90 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-06-30, after 2014-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: hcvserumoperativeantidisease
Phrases that lowered it: per daycomparedlong termcomparingaim -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 87 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 53 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 106 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 50 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 8.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- curcumin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Adalimumab on Preventing Post-chirurgic Recurrence on Crohn´s Disease NCT01564823 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- A Multicentre Study on Rifaximin in Post-operative Endoscopic Crohn's Disease Recurrence Prevention NCT03537157 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- A Study of TAK-018 in Preventing the Recurrence of Crohn's Disease After Surgery NCT03943446 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- A Multicenter Trial Comparing REMICADE (Infliximab) and Placebo in the Prevention of Recurrence in Crohn's Disease (CD) Patients Undergoing Surgical Resection Who Are at an Increased Risk of Recurrence NCT01190839 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
- Prevention of Recurrence of Crohn's Disease by Fecal Microbiota Therapy (FMT) NCT02417974 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.