Phase 1 Study of ACE-083 in Healthy Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (40 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacelltherapysquamousuln
  Phrases that lowered it: healthydayintendedalcoholknown or
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of ACE-2494 in Healthy Subjects NCT03478319 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Extension Study to Evaluate the Long-Term Effects of ACE-083 in Patients With Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) and Charcot-Marie Tooth (CMT) Disease Types 1 and X (CMT1 and CMTX) NCT03943290 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• A Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Study of ACE-031 (ActRIIB-IgG1)in Healthy Postmenopausal Volunteers NCT00755638 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Study of ACE-031 in Healthy Postmenopausal Women NCT00952887 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Intramuscular Dose-Escalation Study With ETI-204 in Adult Volunteers NCT01932437 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.