Wound Infusion vs Spinal Morphine for Post-caesarean Analgesia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientdoublecontrolledpostage
  Phrases that lowered it: agedweeksbmicompareasa
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ropivacaine Through Continuous Infusion Versus Epidural Morphine for Postoperative Analgesia After Emergency Cesarean Section NCT02410317 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Bupivacaine Verus Pethidine for Post Cesarean Section Pain Relief NCT03652116 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Subcutaneous Wound Infiltration of Ketamine or Bupivacaine Pain Perception After Cesarean Section NCT02515422 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Continuous Wound Infusion in Lumbar or Thoracic Surgery NCT01743794 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Epidural Oxycodone and Epidural Morphine NCT02277678 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.