Chronic Postconcussive Headache: A Placebo-Controlled Treatment Trial of Prazosin
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-09-30, after 2016-01-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: purposeleast weeksdosestableto determine
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanttrialgoodhealth -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 236 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1694 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 236 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 177 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1694 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 430 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 11.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- prazosin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Migraine Study in Adolescent Patients NCT00843024 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Extension Study of ABP-20001 to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Repeat Treatments of ABP-450 for Migraine Prevention NCT05016661 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
- Investigation of Safety and Efficacy of ABP-450 for Migraine Prevention in Adults NCT04845178 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Cooperative Studies Program #563 - Prazosin and Combat Trauma PTSD NCT00532493 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Sumatriptan as Treatment for Post-traumatic Headache NCT01854385 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.