Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Advanced Merkel Cell Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-15, after 2014-11-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patient hasheartstablediseaseevidence
Phrases that lowered it: mkthe trialsystemicvisitmethods -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 907 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 907 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 155 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 345 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 344 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lambrolizumab, pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Stage IB-IVB Mycosis Fungoides or Sezary Syndrome NCT02243579 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab and Vorinostat in Treating Patients With Recurrent Squamous Cell Head and Neck Cancer or Salivary Gland Cancer That Is Metastatic and/or Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT02538510 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Radiation Therapy With Temozolomide and Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed Glioblastoma NCT02530502 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- MK-3475 Immunotherapy in Endometrial Carcinoma NCT02630823 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With EGFR Mutant, Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Naive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02879994 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.