Use of Topical Lidocaine to Reduce Pain in Preterm Infants Receiving Nasal CPAP Continuous Positive Airway Pressure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: preterminfantspurpose ofassociatedrequiring
  Phrases that lowered it: paintopicalefficacynasalapplication
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 0.08 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 3889 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pain Relief of Newborn Preterm Infants During Endotracheal Suctioning NCT01201954 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Role of Repeated Painful Procedures in Preterm Neonates on Short Term Neurobehavioural Outcome NCT01190995 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Intranasal Fentanyl in Preterm Infants Undergoing Peripherally Inserted Central Catheter Placement NCT06590870 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Alfentanil Versus Sufentanil for Pain in Children During for Tracheal Suction NCT01235637 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Trial to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of Lucinactant for Inhalation in Premature Neonates NCT02074059 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.