Study Assessing Safety and Therapeutic Activity of AFFITOPE® PD01A and PD03A in Patients With Early MSA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painimpairmentplacebochroniccontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationparticipantsimmunogenicitytrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Follow-up Study to Assess One Boost Immunization With AFFITOPE® PD01A With Regard to Safety and Clinical Activity NCT02216188 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Follow-up Study to Assess a Second Boost Immunization With AFFITOPE® PD01A With Regard to Safety and Clinical Activity (AFF008AA) NCT02618941 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Follow-up Study to Assess Safety and Clinical Activity of Continued AFFITOPE® AD02 Vaccinations of Patients Who Participated in AFF006 NCT02008513 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Study Assessing Tolerability and Safety of AFFITOPE® PD03A in Patients With Early Parkinson's Disease NCT02267434 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Tolerability and Safety of Subcutaneous Administration of Two Doses of AFFITOPE® PD01A in Early Parkinson's Disease NCT01568099 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.