Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Escalating Doses of SP-420, an Iron Chelator, in Patients With β-Thalassemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectbreastescalationto assesssafety and
  Phrases that lowered it: upperironlimit ofof normalserum
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of Sapablursen (Formerly ISIS 702843, IONIS-TMPRSS6-LRx) NCT04059406 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics of an Oral Iron Chelator Given for a Year to Pediatric Patients With Iron Overload NCT01363908 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Study of PTG-300 in Non-Transfusion Dependent and Transfusion-Dependent Beta-Thalassemia Subjects With Chronic Anemia NCT03802201 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Deferasirox in Non-transfusion Dependent Thalassemia Patients With Iron Overload and a One Year Open-label Extension Study NCT00873041 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacokinetic Study of Escalating Multiple Doses of an Iron Chelator in Patients With Iron Overload NCT01039636 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.