Adverse Effects of Red Blood Cell Transfusions: A Unifying Hypothesis (Aim 3)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-10-31, after 2009-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellstherapycellmg dlto determine
Phrases that lowered it: volunteershealthyagedbloodpressure -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 74 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 51 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Adverse Effects of RBC Transfusions: A Unifying Hypothesis NCT00838331 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Red Blood Cell ATP Release and Vascular Function in Humans NCT03404843 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Pilot Study About the Harmful Effects of Blood Storage on Overweight People and the Role of iNO in This Setting NCT01529502 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Transfusion of Biotin-Labeled Red Blood Cells NCT03364686 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- Study to Assess S303 RBCs and Evaluate Safety and Efficacy in Patients Requiring Transfusion Support of Acute Anemia NCT01716923 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.