De-intensification of Radiation and Chemotherapy for Low-Risk HPV-related Oropharyngeal SCC: Follow-up Study

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 38% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustcancerradiationchemotherapycell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsarthritisrheumatoidweeksdose of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 21804 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 46 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• De-intensification of Radiation & Chemotherapy in Low-Risk Human Papillomavirus-related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Ca NCT01530997 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study of Chemotherapy Prior to Radiotherapy and Chemotherapy in Patients With HPV Associated Cancer of the Oral Cavity NCT01525927 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Docetaxel/Cisplatin/5-Fluorouracil (TPF) Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Squamous Cell Carcinoma Study NCT01221753 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• P53 Mutational Status and cf HPV DNA for the Management of HPV-associated OPSCC NCT03077243 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Treatment De-Intensification for Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Oropharynx NCT01088802 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.