Efficacy and Safety of Riociguat in Patients With Systemic Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosisrenalpulmonarydialysisstudy drug
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialto investigateinvestigate thebreastand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 537 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Riociguat in Scleroderma Associated Digital Ulcers NCT02915835 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Belumosudil in Subjects With Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT04680975 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
• Study of Pomalidomide (CC-4047) to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, Pharmacodynamics and Effectiveness for Patients With Systemic Sclerosis With Interstitial Lung Disease NCT01559129 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Effectiveness and Safety of SAR156597 in Treating Diffuse Systemic Sclerosis NCT02921971 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Safety of GS-248 and Efficacy on Raynauds' Phenomenon in Systemic Sclerosis NCT04744207 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.