Topical Vancomycin for Neurosurgery Wound Prophylaxis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (276 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-11-30, after 2014-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsurgicalwoundventricularhours
Phrases that lowered it: groupwill receivepatients whoevaluate theto evaluate -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 53 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 14 (lowers risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 172 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 14 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 172 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 26.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 53 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16183 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2427 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- vancomycin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Dose Escalation Trial of Intrasite Vancomycin Pharmacokinetics NCT01764750 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- Cefuroxime vs Ceftriaxone for SSI Prevention in Neurosurgery NCT05398081 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Topical Use of Vancomycin in Reducing Sternal Wound Infection in Cardiac Surgery (SWI Trial) NCT02374853 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Local Antibiotic Therapy to Reduce Infection After Operative Treatment of Fractures at High Risk of Infection: A Multicenter Randomized, Controlled Trial (VANCO) NCT02227446 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Fibrin Sealant for the Sealing of Dura Sutures NCT00681824 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.