A Phase 2 Clinical Study in Subjects With Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Two Oral Doses of Laquinimod Either of 0.6 mg/Day or 1.5mg/Day (Experimental Drug) as Compared to Placebo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equaltypeto screeningprior toinclusive
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsvirusinterferonulnaminotransferase
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 25 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 41 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BRAVO Study: Laquinimod Double-blind Placebo-controlled Study in Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) With a Rater Blinded Reference Arm of Interferon β-1a (Avonex®) NCT00605215 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• The Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Laquinimod in Participants With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01707992 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• Natalizumab (BG00002, Tysabri) Study in Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01440101 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Study to Asses Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Monthly Long-acting IM Injection of GA Depot in Subjects With RMS NCT04121221 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Monthly Long-acting IM Injection of 25mg or 40 mg GA Depot in Subjects With PPMS NCT03362294 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.