Effect of Eleclazine (GS-6615) on Exercise Capacity in Subjects With Symptomatic Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartmay applycriteria mayother protocolprotocol defined
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofparticipantsmoderateevaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 20 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy of Oral Sacubitril/Valsartan in Adult Patients With Non-obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT04164732 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Aficamten Compared to Placebo in Adults With Symptomatic oHCM NCT05186818 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Study of Perhexiline in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy and Moderate to Severe Heart Failure NCT02862600 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Dapagliflozin on Submaximal Exercise Tolerance in Heart Failure NCT04956809 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of CT-G20 in Subjects With Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy NCT04418297 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.