A Phase 1 Study In Japanese Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus As Monotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (816 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1455 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 229 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pftolerability pharmacokineticsand pharmacodynamicspharmacodynamics ofsafety tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: crossoverjapanesewith typetype diabetescriteria patients
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, metabolic: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Of Two Dosing Regimens Of PF-04937319 Compared To An Approved Agent (Sitagliptin) In Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01933672 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study To Evaluate Safety And Efficacy Of Investigational Drug - PF04937319 In Patients With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01475461 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1 Single/Multiple Dose Study Of PF-06293620 To Assess Safety, Tolerability And Pharmacokinetics In Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02211261 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of PF-06882961 in Japanese Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT04552470 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics And Pharmacodynamics Study Of PF-06291874 As Oral Monotherapy To Treat Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT02175121 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.