Study of Ozanimod (RPC1063) in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (MS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiple sclerosisrelapsingprimaryscoreprogressive
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofevaluatethe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 126369 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 4 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of Ozanimod (RPC1063) in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Patients NCT01628393 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Ozanimod in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT02047734 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Multi-Site, Open-Label Extension Trial of Oral RPC1063 in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT02576717 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics Study of RPC1063 in RMS NCT02797015 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Ofatumumab Compared to Placebo in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Followed by Extended Treatment With Open-label Ofatumumab NCT03249714 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.