Efficacy and Safety of Intranasal MSP-2017 (Etripamil) for the Conversion of PSVT to Sinus Rhythm

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsyndromechronicsubjectsventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: has historynasalrhinitisthe investigatorday
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Etripamil for the Termination of Spontaneous Paroxysmal Supraventricular Tachycardia (PSVT). NCT03464019 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• Treatment of an Inherited Ventricular Arrhythmia NCT05122975 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Etripamil Nasal Spray Self-Administration for the Termination of Spontaneous Episodes of Paroxysmal Supraventricular Tachycardia NCT05410860 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• INhalation of Flecainide to Convert Recent Onset SympTomatic Atrial Fibrillation to siNus rhyThm (INSTANT) NCT03539302 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Etripamil Nasal Spray in Patients With Paroxysmal Supraventricular Tachycardia NCT04952610 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.