The COMPASS Study: A Study of Volanesorsen (Formally ISIS-APOCIIIRx) in Patients With Hypertriglyceridemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: acutemonthspriorof screeningplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsevaluate theparticipantto evaluateand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Olezarsen (ISIS 678354) Administered to Participants With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia NCT05079919 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study of Olezarsen Administered Subcutaneously to Participants With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia NCT05552326 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study of Olezarsen (Formerly Known as AKCEA-APOCIII-LRx) in Adults With Hypertriglyceridemia and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (Established or at Increased Risk for), and/or With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia NCT05355402 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study of Olezarsen (ISIS 678354) in Participants With Hypertriglyceridemia and Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease, or With Severe Hypertriglyceridemia NCT05610280 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetic Study of ISIS ApoC-III Rx in Hypertriglyceridemia NCT01529424 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.