Neoadjuvant Vemurafenib + Cobimetinib + Atezolizumab in Melanoma: NEO-VC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-05-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomafailurepatientivmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinelesionsexaminationclinicaltrial
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3940 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cabozantinib and Pembrolizumab for Advanced Metastatic Melanoma NCT03957551 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• LCCC 1128: Open Label Phase II Trial of the BRAF Inhibitor (Dabrafenib) and the MEK Inhibitor (Trametinib) in Unresectable Stage III and Stage IV BRAF Mutant Melanoma; Correlation of Resistance With the Kinome and Functional Mutations NCT01726738 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Carboplatin Plus Pemetrexed Plus Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab in Chemotherapy and Immunotherapy-naïve Patients With Stage IV Non-squamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03713944 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Anti-CD137 and Anti-CTLA-4 Monoclonal Antibody in Patients With Advanced Cancer NCT04121676 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Vemurafenib and Cobimetinib Combination in BRAF Mutated Melanoma With Brain Metastasis NCT02537600 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.