Study Comparing Veliparib Plus FOLFIRI Versus Placebo Plus FOLFIRI With or Without Bevacizumab in Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcolorectalcancerbevacizumabirinotecan
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantinvestigatorefficacy andcooperative
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 62701 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• OPAL Study: A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) in Combination With FOLFOXIRI in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00940303 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• 2nd-line Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01532804 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• A Study Of PF-05212384 Plus FOLFIRI Versus Bevacizumab Plus FOLFIRI In Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01937715 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ABT-165 Plus FOLFIRI vs Bevacizumab Plus FOLFIRI in Subjects With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Previously Treated With Fluoropyrimidine, Oxaliplatin and Bevacizumab NCT03368859 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Avastin (Bevacizumab) With XELOX or FOLFOX in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer and Disease Progression Under First-line FOLFIRI and Avastin NCT01077739 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.