Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab for Unresectable Stage III and Unresectable Stage IV Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecellcancersmallmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantthe efficacymkhas history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab Effects on NK Cell Exhaustion in Melanoma (Merck NK-IIT) NCT03241927 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Study of Pembrolizumab as First Line Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Skin NCT02883556 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pembrolizumab in Patients With Malignant Peripheral Nerve Sheath Tumor (MPNST), Not Eligible for Curative Surgery NCT02691026 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Ipilimumab vs Ipilimumab Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma Who Have Progressed or Relapsed on PD-1 Inhibitor Therapy NCT02731729 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Immunologic Determinants of Response to Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Advanced Melanoma (MK-3475-161/KEYNOTE-161) NCT03407170 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.