Phase 2 Etirinotecan Pegol in Refractory Brain Metastases & Advanced Lung Cancer / Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorradiationtherapycellcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: lungaminotransferasemmlineliver
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Etirinotecan Pegol (NKTR-102) in NSCLC NCT01773109 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Pegylated Irinotecan NKTR 102 in Treating Patients With Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01876446 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Temsirolimus, Irinotecan Hydrochloride, and Temozolomide in Treating Younger Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Solid Tumors NCT01141244 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Bintrafusp Alfa and Pimasertib for the Treatment of Patients With Brain Metastases NCT04789668 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Pharmacokinetic Study of Lurbinectedin in Combination With Irinotecan in Patients With Selected Solid Tumors NCT02611024 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.