Radiation Therapy and MK-3475 for Patients With Recurrent/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer, Renal Cell Cancer, Melanoma, and Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancertumorbiopsyradiationprior
  Phrases that lowered it: dose ofasthmadays afterfirst dosechildren
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 700 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab and Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy or Non-Stereotactic Wide-Field Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02444741 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Combination of MK-3475 and Sterotactic Body Radiotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma or NSCLC NCT02407171 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Pilot Study of Stereotactic Ablation for Oligometastatic Breast Neoplasia in Combination With the Anti-PD-1 Antibody MK-3475 NCT02303366 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in HNSCC With Residual Disease After Radiation NCT02892201 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Assess the Efficacy of Pembrolizumab Plus Radiotherapy or Ablation in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT02437071 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.