TIGER-3: Open Label, Multicenter Study of Rociletinib (CO-1686) Mono Therapy Versus Single-agent Cytotoxic Chemotherapy in Patients With Mutant EGFR NSCLC Who Have Failed at Least One Previous EGFR-Directed TKI and Platinum-doublet Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclcsmall cellcell lungnon smalllung cancer
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsdays beforeopen labelinvestigatorpatient
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 16 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8709 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• TIGER-1: Safety and Efficacy Study of Rociletinib (CO-1686) or Erlotinib in Patients With EGFR-mutant/Metastatic NSCLC Who Have Not Had Any Previous EGFR Directed Therapy NCT02186301 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Multicenter Study of Rociletinib Administered to Patients With Previously Treated Mutant EGFR Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02147990 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Osimertinib (AZD9291) in First-line Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC Patients With EGFR and EGFR T790M NCT02841579 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib in Combination With Cetuximab NCT00895362 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of Rociletinib (CO-1686) in Previously Treated Mutant Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Patients NCT01526928 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.