Dose-finding Study of Metformin With Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerradiationheadand necksquamous cell
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofmetformincombinationgoodpatients
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 141354 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 28434 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase I/II Study OF Metformin in Combination With Cisplatin and Radiation in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02949700 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Metformin Plus Paclitaxel for Metastatic or Recurrent Head and Neck Cancer NCT01333852 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Metformin Hydrochloride and Doxycycline in Treating Patients With Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03076281 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• The Addition of Metformin to Definitive Radiotherapy in Patients With Stage III NSCLC NCT04170959 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Advanced Lung Cancer Treatment With Metformin and Chemo-Radiotherapy NCT02115464 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.