An Efficacy and Safety Study of Two Dose Levels of Certolizumab Pegol (CZP) in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis (PSO)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-10-24, after 2014-12-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: multiplesclerosislymphomaprotocolmay apply
Phrases that lowered it: psoriasisefficacy andand safetymoderate toto severe -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 15053 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2250 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 55.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- certolizumab pegol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Two Dose Levels of Certolizumab Pegol (CZP) in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis (PSO) NCT02326272 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Certolizumab Pegol (CZP) Versus Active Comparator and Placebo in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis (PSO) NCT02346240 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study to Test the Efficacy and Safety of Certolizumab Pegol in Japanese Subjects With Moderate to Severe Chronic Psoriasis NCT03051217 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics, Safety, and Effectiveness of Certolizumab Pegol in Children With Moderate to Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT04123795 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Certolizumab Pegol in Subjects With Adult Onset Active and Progressive Psoriatic Arthritis NCT01087788 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.