ASpirin as a Treatment for ARDS (STAR): a Phase 2 Randomised Control Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hourscellsacuteaspirinhigh
  Phrases that lowered it: bowelasthmarespiratorynasalin clinical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 204688 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 38945 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• LIPS-A: Lung Injury Prevention Study With Aspirin NCT01504867 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Combination of an Inhaled Budesonide and Ipratropium in Patients at Risk of Developing ARDS NCT06657079 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether Different Doses of Alteplase Help People With Severe Breathing Problems Because of COVID-19 NCT04640194 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of FP-1201-lyo (Interferon Beta-1a) in Patients Having Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) NCT02622724 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• The Effect of Aspirin on REducing iNflammation in Human in Vivo Model of Acute Lung Injury NCT01659307 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.