Randomized Trial Comparing Sitagliptin to Placebo in Closed Loop

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (137 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicdiabeteshormonebloodlevels
  Phrases that lowered it: mgallergysitagliptinhealthyvisit
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 14 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 30 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sitagliptin and the Risk for Hypoglycaemia in Type 2 Diabetes Patients NCT03359590 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Randomized Sitagliptin Withdrawal Study (MK-0431-845) NCT02738879 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test the Safety and Efficacy of Sitagliptin Compared to Glimepiride in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes on a Stable Dose of Metformin (0431-803)(COMPLETED) NCT00701090 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Research Study in People With Type 2 Diabetes to Compare Two Types of Insulin: Insulin 287 and Insulin Glargine NCT03922750 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• The Impact of Sitagliptin as an Add on Therapy With Closed Loop Control in Adolescents With Diabetic Nephropathy NCT06115460 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.