Dose Range Finding Study of Bimagrumab in Sarcopenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: coronarysafety tolerabilitybreast cancersurgerytolerability and
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatemgtreatmentwith multiplethe effect
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 727 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 260 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Efficacy, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of MYMD1 for Chronic Inflammation and Sarcopenia/Frailty NCT05283486 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A 24-week Off-drug Extension Study in Sarcopenic Elderly Who Completed Treatment in the 6-month Core Study NCT02468674 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Study of Efficacy and Safety of Bimagrumab in Patients After Hip Fracture Surgery NCT02152761 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• A Multi-center Study to Assess the Effects of BYM338 on Skeletal Muscle in Sarcopenic Adults NCT01601600 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Randomized INTerventional Clinical Trial (SARA-INT) NCT03452488 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.