Study Evaluating the Benefit of Two Immunosuppressive Strategies on Renal Function

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (169 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplanttransplantationdonoreverolimuspatient
  Phrases that lowered it: open labeldrugweeks beforelabel studymulticenter
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 21 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 43383 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Non-inferiority Study of Safety and Efficacy of Everolimus With Low Dose Tacrolimus to Mycophenolate Mofetil With Standard Dose Tacrolimus in Kidney Transplant Recipients NCT01025817 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• A National Multi-center Randomized, Open Label Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Everolimus With EC-MPS Compared to Standard Treatment Combination Tacrolimus and EC-MPS in de Novo Liver Transplant Recipients NCT01625377 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Once-a-day Regimen With Everolimus, Low Dose Cyclosporine and Steroids in Comparison With Steroid Withdrawal or Twice a Day Regimen With Everolimus, Low Dose Cyclosporine and Steroids. NCT01023815 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Evolution of Cardiovascular Parameters in Renal Transplant Recipients NCT01114529 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• REnal Function in Liver Transplantation: Everolimus With Calcineurin Inhibitor (CNI)-Sparing sTrategy NCT02115113 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.