Validation of a Predictive Model of Response to Romiplostim in Patients With IPSS Low or Intermediate-1 Risk MDS and Thrombocytopenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-07-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mdscellmarrowleukemiaeffective
  Phrases that lowered it: maleperiodrangeother protocolsubjects
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Romiplostim Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Subjects With Low or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT00614523 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Eltrombopag Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Subjects With Advanced Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) or Secondary Acute Myeloid Leukemia After MDS (sAML/MDS) NCT00903422 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Eltrombopag Plus Lenalidomide Combination Therapy in Patients With IPSS Low and Intermediate-risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome With Isolated del5q NCT02928419 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Safety Study of Eltrombopag Combined With Azacitidine to Treat Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT01481220 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of a Thrombopoietin-Receptor Agonist, Eltrombopag, in Patients With Low to Int-2 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT00961064 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.