Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Advanced Urothelial Cancer (MK-3475-052/KEYNOTE-052)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-02-18, after 2015-02-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancercelltherapycarcinomachemotherapy
Phrases that lowered it: participantsvaccineparticipantdaysstudy treatment -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1067 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1067 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 119 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 700 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 698 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 74% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Pembrolizumab With or Without Platinum-based Combination Chemotherapy Versus Chemotherapy Alone in Urothelial Carcinoma (MK-3475-361/KEYNOTE-361) NCT02853305 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Paclitaxel, Docetaxel, or Vinflunine for Participants With Advanced Urothelial Cancer (MK-3475-045/KEYNOTE-045) NCT02256436 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Study of First-line Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) With Lenvatinib (MK-7902/E7080) in Urothelial Carcinoma Cisplatin-ineligible Participants Whose Tumors Express Programmed Cell Death-Ligand 1 and in Participants Ineligible for Platinum-containing Chemotherapy (MK-7902-011/E7080-G000-317/ LEAP-011) NCT03898180 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Monotherapy in Locally Advanced/Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (MK-3475-427/KEYNOTE-427) NCT02853344 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) + Pegylated Interferon Alfa-2b and Pembrolizumab+ Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Melanoma or Renal Cell Carcinoma (MK-3475-029/KEYNOTE-29) NCT02089685 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.