Research In Viral Eradication of HIV Reservoirs
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-03-31, after 2015-11-27 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: infectionantibodyhepatitispulmonarysevere
Phrases that lowered it: trialraltegravircombinationmgphysical -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 8 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 9 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 140 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 62 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8066 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1568 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 13.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- raltegravir, vorinostat
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pilot Trial of the Effect of Vorinostat and AGS-004 on Persistent HIV-1 Infection NCT02707900 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials terminated
- LRAs United as a Novel Anti-HIV Strategy. NCT03525730 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate Effects of Vorinostat and HXTC on Persistent HIV-1 Infection in HIV-Infected Subjects Started on Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) NCT03212989 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess Safety and Ability to Induce Immune Responses of HIV-1 Vaccines M3 and M4 Given Alone or in Combination in HIV-infected Adults NCT03844386 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Therapeutic Vaccine for HIV NCT01859325 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.