Neoadjuvant Phase II Trial in Patients With T1c Operable, HER2-positive Breast Cancer According to TOP2A Status

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerher2heartfailuremetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: accordingpatientsrespiratoryhealthaged
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8409 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 49397 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Anthracycline-free Taxane Based Chemotherapy in Patients With HER2/Neu Negative Early Breast Cancer NCT01049425 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Trastuzumab Versus Lapatinib as Neoadjuvant Treatment for Her2+ Patients NCT00841828 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• The Synergism Or Long Duration (SOLD) Study NCT00593697 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare Neoadjuvant Combination of Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab With Concurrent Taxane Chemotherapy or Endocrine Therapy and Quality of Life Assessment Under Adjuvant Therapy in Operable HER2+/HR+ Breast Cancer Patients NCT03272477 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel With Trastuzumab and Lapatinib in HER2-Positive Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT01827163 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.